The price of sanctions: An empirical analysis of German export losses due to the Russian agricultural ban

The aim of this paper is to contribute to the vivid political discussion on the consequences of the Russian agricultural import ban on the German export market by quantifying export losses that German agri-food exporters encountered on the Russian market due to the agricultural import ban of 2014. A gravity-type approach is used to measure the sanction effect in a panel of German agri-food exports covering the period from January 1999 to June 2018. The ban effect is disentangled from a sequence of different geopolitically- and economically driven episodes. Once macroeconomic developments of the Russian economy as well as individual stages of decreasing trade cooperation in the preban period are accounted for, the import ban reduced German agri-food exports significantly but was not the major cause. Therefore, a simple elimination of the ban will not be enough to restore trade to the presanctions level.