建立中国和澳大利亚自由贸易区的经济影响分析及政策建议

加入世贸组织后,中国逐渐重视双边自由贸易协定的积极作用,继中国-东盟(“10+1”)自由贸易区之后,中国和澳大利亚的自由贸易协定正在协商之中。本文目的是研究中国和澳大利亚建立自由贸易区后对中澳两国和其他国家的经济影响。本文采用全球贸易分析模型,对自由化方案作了分析,研究结果表明:中澳两国间存在明显的经济互补性,建立自由贸易区将改进两国和世界总福利,澳大利亚的农业和工业都将受益,农业部门所得利益大于工业部门,中国所得利益全部来自劳动力密集型的工业部门,而农业部门会受到一定的冲击。最后,基于模拟分析结果,提出应对措施和政策建议。

On the Economic Effect of Setting up the China-Australia Free Trade Area and Policy Suggestions

China gradually pays attentions to the positive effects of Free Trade Areas(FTA). After the construction of ASEAN-China("10+1")FTA, China is negotiating the free trade agreement with Australia. The objective of this study is to examine the economic impacts of FTA between China and Australian. Based on a general equilibrium model of the Global Trade Analysis Project(GTAP), this paper shows the the economy of China and Australia is complementary and both countries will benefit from the FTA agreement. Australia will gain both from agricultural and industry sectors and will gains more from agriculture sector. For China, however, almost all gains are from labor-intensive industry sectors. Based on our analysis, some policy implications are discussed.