铁路商品汽车运输需求分析及发展对策探讨

随着"公转铁"等政策的相继出台,为铁路商品汽车运输提供了良好的发展契机。为促进铁路商品汽车运输发展,阐述商品汽车现状,分析商品汽车需求前景,通过对市场份额、适宜运距及主要区域增量的分析,定性预测铁路商品汽车运量,同时利用ARIMA模型对铁路商品汽车运量进行定量预测,综合分析得出2019年、2020年铁路商品汽车运量预测值,提出应加强物流基地建设、发展储运销一体化、加快技术装备研发应用、提高运输服务质量等促进铁路商品汽车运输发展的策略,为提升铁路商品汽车运输市场份额打好基础。

A Tentative Study on Demand Analysis and Development Strategy of Railway Commodity Automobile Transportation

With the successive introduction of policies such as"shifting transport from road to rail",it provides a good opportunity for the development of railway commodity automobile transportation.In order to promote the further development of railway commodity automobile transportation,this paper expounds the current situation of merchandise automobile,analyses the prospects of demand for merchandise automobile.Through the analysis of the market share,suitable transportation distance of railway commodity automobile transportation and the increment of main area,the paper qualitatively predicts the volume of railway commodity automobile transportation,and quantitatively predicts the volume of railway commodity automobile transportation by ARIMA model.The forecast values of railway commodity automobile transportation in 2019 and 2020 are obtained by comprehensive analysis,and the corresponding suggestions are put forward.Strengthen the construction of logistics base,develop the integration of storage,transportation and marketing,accelerate the development and application of technology and equipment,and improve the quality of transport services to promote the development of railway commodity automobile transport strategy,lay a good foundation for improving the market share of railway commodity automobile transportation.