2014年二季度吉林省经济金融形势分析及预测

从二季度区域经济运行情况来看：我省工业生产总体增速放缓,全省多数市/州工业出现下滑,民营经济显著回落,工业用电和铁路货运持续低位运行;三大需求全面回落,消费需求回落至中低速增长区间,固定资产投资增速下降明显,净出口增速持续收窄,外贸形势较为严峻;劳动力市场低位运行,就业和用工整体形势不容乐观,但企业一线用工情况有所改善;财政收支压力持续加大,收入减速和支出加速并存;房地产市场下行压力加大,商品房销量下滑显著,库存压力不断加大,商品房价格环比持续下降;消费者价格指数小幅回升,工业生产者价格低位企稳。从金融运行情况来看：各项贷款增速略有回落,受临储粮贷款投放减少影响,短期贷款增势放缓,中长期贷款增幅回升,单位中长期贷款呈增长势头,单位固定资产贷款强势增长;二产贷款增速、增量占比均有所提升,但信贷集中投向三产的格局并未改变;分企业规模类型看,小型企业贷款同比显著增长;单位存款增速持续放缓,存款定期化趋势增强预示宏观经济偏冷;居民投资结构有所调整,理财产品发放导致储蓄存款分流明显。

Analysis of Economic and Financial Situation of Jilin Province in 2014 2nd Quarter and Forecast

From the economic operation of the 2 quarter of our province regional perspective： a general slowdown in industrial production, the majority of city / state industry decline, private economy dropped significantly, the industrial use of electricity and rail freight continued to run low; three demand declined, consumption demand dropped to low speed growth interval, the fixed asset investment growth rate down obviously, the net export growth continued to narrow, foreign trade situation is more serious; the labor market to run low, employment and labor overall situation is not optimistic, but the enterprise＇s employment situation has improved; fiscal pressures continue to increase, the income and expenditure acceleration deceleration coexist; the real estate market downward pressure, commercial housing sales decline significantly, inventory pressure increasing commercial housing prices, continued to decline; the consumer price index rose slightly, industrial producer price low to stabilize From the financial operation situation： the loan growth fell slightly, by the temporary storage loans to reduce the impact, short-term loan growth slows, long-term loans increased recovery unit, long-term loan growth momentum, strong growth unit fixed assets loans; second loan growth, accounted for the incremental increase ratio, but the concentration of credit to the three estate pattem has not changed; enterprise scale type, small business loans were increased significantly; the unit deposit growth continued to slow, regular trend deposits suggests macroeconomic cold; residential investment structure has been adjusted, financial products issued in savings deposits obviously.