中国农村商业发展的区域差异与变动趋势分析

文章运用GINI系数、Theil系数、对数离差均值系数对1983～2006年中国农村商业发展的各地带间差异、省际差异进行度量,并在此基础上运用R/S分析方法对区域农村商业发展差异性的未来变动趋势进行了分析。结果表明：中国农村商业发展的区域差异主要表现为组内差异。但Hurst指数表明,不管是组内差异还是组间差异,未来的差异性还要扩大;农村商业发展水平较低的省际差异最明显,其次是中等发展水平的省际差异,最后是高发展水平的省际差异。与此同时,Hurst指数显示：中部地带内农村商业发展的省际差异正在逐步缩小。

The Regional Disparities of Rural Commerce Development in China and Its Tendency

By using GINI coefficient, Theil coefficient and the coefficient of logarithmic deviation mean, this paper measures the disparities of the development of the rural commerce from 1983 to 2006. And on the base of this measure, this paper also analyzes the future tendency of the regional disparities of the development of the rural commerce by the use of R/S, its result shows that： the disparities in the group is the main regional one as for the development of the rural commerce in China, however, not only the Group one but the internal group one all shows the future expand; the disparities between the provinces in the areas of lower level is the greatest, followed by the medium level ones, and the last is the high level ones; At the same time, Hurst index indicates that the disparities between the provinces in the central area are gradually narrowing.