金融发展、投资扩张模式与中国的资本回报率*

本文从理论上分析了金融发展对资本回报率的影响机理,并使用中国省际数据进行了实证验证,得出的主要结论有：中国的资本回报率由2008年之前的平稳期进入到大幅度下降期,但区域间趋同趋势明显;中国金融发展不足与发展过度问题并存,其对资本回报率的影响也因地区不同而出现了明显差异,在投资扩张系数较高的地区存在着“金融失效”现象,在投资扩张系数较低的地区存在着“金融诅咒”现象,在投资扩张系数居中的地区存在着“结构失调”现象;政府干预会加剧金融发展的不利影响,但该作用在不断减弱;资本积累对技术进步促进作用的缺失,是资本存量对资本回报率产生负向影响的重要原因;劳动力增强型技术进步不仅促进了资本回报率的提升,还延续了投资驱动型增长的时期;技术进步是中国资本回报率提升的重要动力。

FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT,INVESTMENT EXPANSION MODE AND THE CAPITAL RETURN OF CHINA

This paper analyzes the impact of financial development on capital return in theory, and makes an empirical verification using the data of China provinces. The main conclusions are as follows: The capital return of China was relatively stable before 2008, after which there has been a significant decline, and the trend of regional convergence is obvious. Underdevelopment and overdevelopment of Chinas financial exist at the same time, and its impact on capital return are different in three regions, there is a “financial failure” phenomenon in the area of high investment expansion coefficient, a “financial curse” phenomenon in the area of low investment expansion coefficient, and a “structural imbalance” phenomenon in the area of middle investment expansion coefficient. Government intervention exacerbates the negative impact of financial development, but this effect is weakening. Capital accumulation does not contribute to technological progress,which is the reason of that capital stock has the negative effect on capital return. The labor intensive technological progress not only promoted the improvement of capital return, but also extends the period of investment driven growth. Technological progress is an important driving force for capital return of China.