我国就业结构变动与技术升级研究*

本文利用一个全国代表性数据库,计算了2003—2013年间城镇劳动力市场就业结构变动情况,并从人口学视角进行了变动原因的分解分析。本文发现过去十年我国技术进步并没有带来显著的劳动参与率下降。相反,除了常规操作性工作,其他三类就业占比都在增长。增长原因既有人口结构变化带来的“结构效应”,也有需求变动带来的“倾向效应”。从绝对值看,由于目前我国常规性就业占比仍然远大于美国,这意味着如果人工智能等技术大力推进,仍然可能对我国劳动力市场带来更大冲击。因此,笔者也参照已有文献做法估计了我国就业中可能被替代的潜在数量和比例,以及未来行业间就业转换的方向。基于这些计算和讨论,本文对当前技术进步采纳及就业应对提出了若干政策建议。

ANALYSIS ON TECHNOLOGY UPGRADE AND EMPLOYMENT STRUCTURE IN CHINA#br#

Using a representative data set,this paper calculates the change of employment structure of labor market in urban China,and explains the change with a decomposition technologyWe find no significant decline of labor participation during the past decade in ChinaExcept for the routine manual occupation,the other three kinds of occupations expanded during the last ten yearsThis change is caused by both structure effect and propensity effectFor the absolute value,the amount of working in routine occupation in China is still much higher than that in the United States,which means that the potential impact of artificial intelligence technology may be larger in ChinaThis paper estimates the potential displacement effect of employment and predicts the industrial distribution of employment in the futureBased on these calculations and discussions,this paper proposes some policy suggestions for technology adoption and employment policy