ENSO与山东省降水的关系

利用参数和非参数两种分析方法,分析了近40年来山东省降水量与ENSO之间的相关关系。结果表明:①厄尔尼诺与山东省降水相关性显著,无论是厄尔尼诺还是拉尼娜,它们对山东省沿海降水量的影响远大于对内陆的影响,厄尔尼诺发生的年份,山东省降水量呈减小趋势,而拉尼娜发生的年份,降水量呈增大趋势;②无论是厄尔尼诺还是拉尼娜,对山东省降水量的影响主要集中在夏季和秋季,对春季几乎没有什么影响,对冬季降水趋势的影响与全年的影响正好相反;③山东省的干旱年份主要发生在连续性厄尔尼诺年或者厄尔尼诺的次年,而洪涝基本发生在拉尼娜年或拉尼娜的次年。

Relation between ENSO and Precipitation in Shandong

The paper analyzes the relations between about 40-year precipitation of Shandong Province and ENSO by using two analysis methods of parameter and non-parameter.The outcomes show that a) the correlation between ELNINO and precipitation of Shandong is remarkable and the influence of ELNINO or La Nina to the amount of precipitation of coastland in Shandong is much greater than that of the inland.Shandong precipitation is in a trend of reduction during the happening year of ELNINO and the precipitation is in a trend of increase during the happening year of La Nina;b) whether is ELNINO or La Nina,the influence to the precipitation of Shandong is mainly concentrated in summer and autumn,almost no influence in spring and the influence to precipitation trend in winter and whole year is just contrary and;c) the dry year of Shandong Province mainly happens in the continuous ELNINO years or the next year of La Nina and floods basically happens in La Nina year or the next year of La Nina.