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Modelling and Forecasting Gas Flow on Exits of Gas Transmission Networks |
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| Authors: | Herwig Friedl Radoslava Mirkov Ansgar Steinkamp |
| Institution: | 1. Institute of Statistics, Graz University of Technology, Styria, Austria E‐mail: hfriedl@tugraz.at;2. Department of Mathematics, Humboldt University Berlin, Berlin, Germany E‐mail: mirkov@math.hu‐berlin.de;3. Open Grid Europe GmbH, Essen, North Rhine‐Westphalia, Germany E‐mail: ansgar.steinkamp@open‐grid‐europe.com |
| Abstract: | The flow of natural gas within a gas transmission network is studied with the aim to optimize such networks. The analysis of real data provides a deeper insight into the behaviour of gas in‐ and outflow. Several models for describing dependence between the maximal daily gas flow and the temperature on network exits are proposed. A modified sigmoidal regression is chosen from the class of parametric models. As an alternative, a semi‐parametric regression model based on penalized splines is considered. The comparison of models and the forecast of gas loads for very low temperatures based on both approaches is included. The application of the obtained results is discussed. |
| Keywords: | Sigmoidal regression penalized splines gas flow gas transmission networks prediction optimization |