中国进出口价格弹性研究

本文通过建立中国进出口弹性模型和行业计量经济模型,测算和研究了中国进出口弹性问题.主要研究结论是:第一,中国中长期出口价格弹性和进口价格弹性分别为-0.8579和-1.0774;第二,中国大部分行业的出口价格弹性小于1,特别是农业、石油及天然气开采业、纺织业、化学工业、仪器仪表及文化办公用机械制造业以及社会服务业价格弹性绝对值都在0.5左右.适当提高价格对增加这些部门的收入是有利的;第三,中国大部分行业进口需求价格弹性小于或接近于1;石油及天然气开采业的进口价格需求弹性为异常值,为 1.3148,说明:对于原油这样的战略性物资应该反市场操作,中东出现安全时价低时吃进以为战略储备,而出现危机时抛出以平抑国内原油市场价格的加速上扬.

On the Elasticity of China's Import and Export Price

In terms of China's import and export elasticity model and industrial econometric model, this paper measures and calculates China's I&E elasticity. The basic conclusions are as follows: (1) China's medium and long-term I&E elasticity are -0.8579 and -1.0774 respectively; (2) The absolute value of the export price elasticity of China's most industries is about 0.5, less than 1, especially of agriculture, petroleum and natural gas mining, textile industry, chemical industry, instrument, culture and office machinery-manufacturing and social services. It is beneficial for the increase of these sectors' income to raise the price properly. (3) The desired import price elasticity of China's most industries needs to be less than or close to 1. The desired import price elasticity of petroleum and natural gas mining is +1.3148, an unusual one, which indicates that such strategically important resource as petroleum should be operated against the market way, that is to say, when the situation in the Middle East becomes stable, we should import petroleum at a relatively low price for storage, while in the situation of crisis, we should export it at the higher price so as to prevent the price from soaring up in domestic market.