人民币名义汇率超稳定--形成原因与维持条件

人民币名义汇率超稳定与我国特殊的外汇管理制度和外汇市场运行机制有关,但更主要的原因还在于它有坚实的经济支撑。测算显示,近年来,人民币实际有效汇率是基本均衡的,"低估论"缺乏依据,名义汇率稳定是人民币在对外强势与对内弱势、中期强势与长期弱势交叉并存和相互制约中求得暂时平衡的表现。随着国内外环境的变化,超稳定的可维持性趋于弱化,因此,需要未雨绸缪,加快推进汇率机制改革。

Formation and Sustainability of Super- stabilization on RMB Exchange Rate

Even if related to our special foreign exchange management regime, the super-stabilization of nominal exchange rate of RMB is propped by fundamental economic factors and this is the more important reason. The estimation indicates that the real effective exchange rate of RMB is basically equilibrium in recent years. So, the viewpoint of undervaluation is short of basis. Stabilization of nominal exchange rate is the equilibrium phenomenon for the time being with the coexistence and affecting each other of strong to foreign currency and feeble to domestic economy, middle-term overvaluation and long-term undervaluation on RMB. Considering the sustainability of Super-stabilization debasing along with the variation of internal and external environment, it is necessary to speed up the reform of exchange rate formation mechanism.