Macroeconomic shocks and stock market returns: the case of Korea |
| |
Authors: | Eunsun Yang Sunghyun Henry Kim Maria H Kim |
| |
Affiliation: | 1. College of Economics, Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul, Republic of Korea;2. School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, Australia |
| |
Abstract: | This study examines the effects of macroeconomic shocks on key macro variables, including stock market returns in Korea, using the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. We suggest a three-variable SVAR model incorporating inflation, output growth and stock returns. We adopt a nonzero z-ratio restriction for the long-run identifying assumption to allow for economically meaningful relationships among variables. While our results support the negative (positive) relation of demand (supply) shocks to stock returns, we also find that demand shocks influence stock market variance more significantly than supply shocks do. The sub-period analysis finds that global market fluctuations during the global financial crisis have relatively little effect on Korean stock market performance. We also examine a generalized five-variable model that includes the foreign exchange rate and interest rate, confirming the results from the three-variable case. |
| |
Keywords: | Long-run restriction macro shock monetary policy stock market structural VAR |
|
|