关于调控商品住宅价格着力点的研判

研究目的:研判中国商品住宅价格水平及其驱动力,提出下一步调控价格方向的政策建议。研究方法:提出研判商品住宅价格标准,以北京为例,借助房价收入比、控制购房还贷比的方法,研判商品住宅的价格水平及其主要驱动力,进而提出相应的调控着力点。研究结果:(1)北京商品住宅价格高于60%以上的居民户均住房消费水平;(2)商品住宅价格高位运行的驱动力主要来自房地产开发企业高额利润驱动、土地成本上升和投资(机)性需求增长。研究结论:中国商品住宅价格调控的下一步重点应当是稳定甚至降低土地成本、强化监控房地产开发企业的成本核算和利润所得、提高抑制投机性需求的针对性。

Study on the Regulation and Control of the Price of Commercial Housing

The purpose of this study is to analyze the price and driving forces of commercial housing in China,and to make proposals of relevant policies.The criteria of analyzing the price of commercial housing were propounded.The income ratio and loan repayment ratio of housing were used to analyze the price of commercial housing and main driving forces,taking Beijing as a case.The results indicate:(1) the price of commercial housing is 60%higher than the level of housing consumption in Beijing;(2)the main driving forces include the behavior of real estate developers in seek of high profit,the rising land cost and the growing demand of investment.Further efforts shall be made to stabilize or even reduce the land costs,to strengthen the monitoring and regulation of cost accounting and profits of real estate developers,and to restrain their speculation behavior.