中国农产品出口贸易隐含碳排放变动特征及驱动因素分解

本文建立投入产出模型，测算2001－2013年中国农产品出口隐含碳排放量及其部门分布，采用LMDI 分解法将2001－2013年中国农产品出口贸易隐含碳排放增长分解为规模效应、结构效应和技术效应等3种因素的贡献。实证结果表明，2001－2013年我国农产品出口贸易隐含碳排放量年均增长8.98％，农业部门、食品加工业部门是出口隐含碳排放量最多的部门，规模效应是导致农产品出口的CO2增加的主要原因，技术效应是抑制农产品出口的CO2排放量增长贡献的最重要因素，而结构效应较微弱。

Analysis on Characteristics and Driving Factors of CO2 Emissions Embodied in Agriculture Exporting Trade of China

This paper uses an IO model to evaluate the carbon emissions embodied in agriculture exports of China in 2001-2013 and decomposes the driving factors into scale effects, structure effects, and technology effects with LMDI tech-nique.The results show that the average annual growth rate of the carbon emission embodied in agriculture exports of China in 2001-2013 is 8.98% and the agricultural sector and the food processing sector make the greatest contribution.The scale effect is the main reason for the increase of CO2 emission in agricultural products export, with a contribution rate of 180.64%;the technology effect is the most important factor that restrains the growth of CO2 emission in agricultural products exports, but it does not necessarily lead to the reduction of CO2 emission in agriculture exports;and the structure effect is relatively weak, with a contribution rate of -1.3%in 2001-2013.