动荡中求机遇 危机中谋发展——“2012年石油市场形势研讨会”综述之国际篇

2011年,欧债危机愈演愈烈,世界经济复苏艰难曲折;中东北非局势持续动荡,大国博弈深入展开;全年国际油价高位振荡,WTI与布伦特的价差大幅拉开。中国经济增速逐季回落,成品油需求增速随之放缓,成品油市场化改革有所突破。展望2012年,不确定因素纷繁复杂,世界经济、中国经济乃至国际国内石油市场的发展方向耐人琢磨。在这样的背景下,由中国石油学会石油经济专业委员会和《国际石油经济》编辑部举办的＂2012年石油市场形势研讨会＂于2011年12月20-21日在北京外国专家大厦召开。会议分为＂世界经济与主要经济体复苏前景＂、＂中东北非政局动荡趋势和地缘政治格局变化＂、＂世界石油市场供需前景及价格走势预测＂及＂中国油品市场分析与政策前瞻＂四个专题,邀请16位各领域的资深专家,从多维度的观察视角,与来自政府机构、国内外石油公司以及研究机构等约110位代表展开了精彩而深入的研讨。以下分国际篇和国内篇介绍专家们的主要观点,与本刊读者分享他们的智慧思想。

Overview of "2012 Oil Market Trends Seminar"

In 2011 the European debt crisis worsened,world economic recovery suffered difficulties and setbacks,the situation in the Middle East and North Africa got turbulent,great power rivalry intensified,international oil prices stuck to a high shock level,and the spread between WTI and Brent widened significantly.China’ s quarterly year-over-year economic growth rate declined,and refined-oil demand growth slowed,but refined-oil market-oriented reform achieved a breakthrough.The development direction in 2012 of the world economy,China’s economy and international and domestic oil markets are unpredictable.In this context the "2012 Oil Market Trends Seminar" organized by the Petroleum Economics Committee of Chinese Petroleum Institute and the Editorial Department of "International Petroleum Economics" Monthly was held at the Beijing Foreign Experts Building on December 20-21,2011.The conference focused on the following four topics:"Prospects for Recovery of the World Economy and the Major Economies","Trend of Turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa and Changes in the Geopolitical Configuration","Forecast of Supply,Demand and Prices in the World Oil Market" and "Market Analysis and Policy Developments for Chinese Oil Products";16 senior experts in various fields were invited to the conference and they conducted an insightful and in-depth discussion from a multi-dimensional perspective with the other 110 delegates from government agencies,and domestic and international oil companies and research institutions.These experts considered that the world economy isn’t likely to recover and might fall into a prolonged slump;that Iran would become the key in the evolution of the Middle East and North Africa;that due to the external environment China’s economy experienced a slowdown while its economic policy sought stable growth.In 2012 global oil supply & demand will be relatively diverse and opinions on oil prices will be widely dispersed;there will be a slowdown in domestic refined oil consumption,but the market will remain tight.The experts suggested that domestic refined oil pricing reform should be further promoted,with kerosene serving as a pilot,and that the extent and timing of reform were equally important.