| 基于马尔可夫过程的逆向物流特征预测与分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 沈雁, 聂清, 袁庆达, 杨晓雁,. 基于马尔可夫过程的逆向物流特征预测与分析[J]. 华东经济管理, 2009, 23(11): 157-160. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-5097.2009.11.036 |
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| 作者姓名： | 沈雁 聂清 袁庆达 杨晓雁 |
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| 作者单位： | 东华大学,管理学院,上海,200051;上海对外贸易学院,国际经贸学院,上海,200336;上海对外贸易学院,国际经贸学院,上海,200336 |
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| 基金项目： | 上海对外贸易学院课程建设项目，上海外贸学院国际物流与供应链管理学科建设项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 文章将逆向物流系统近似地看作为一个具有吸收态的马尔可夫过程,运用马尔可夫过程原理预测和分析了逆向物流系统中,系统从原始状态经过若干步转移后,回收物料到达各节点的概率;逆向供应链上某一节点处的回收物料进入吸收态的概率;回收物料从逆向供应链的某节点进入该系统,在各节点停留的平均时间和物料最终被系统吸收所需的平均时间。
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| 关 键 词： | 逆向物流 马尔可夫过程 预测 |
Forecast and Analysis of Reverse Logistics Characters based on Markov Process Method |
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| SHEN Yan; ; NIE Qing; YUAN Qing-da; YANG Xiao-yan. Forecast and Analysis of Reverse Logistics Characters based on Markov Process Method[J]. East China Economic Management, 2009, 23(11): 157-160. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-5097.2009.11.036 |
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| Authors: | SHEN Yan NIE Qing YUAN Qing-da YANG Xiao-yan |
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| Affiliation: | 1.School of Management; Donghua University; Shanghai 200051; China; 2.School of Internatinal Trade and Economics; Shanghai Institute of Foreign Trade; Shanghai 200336; China |
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| Abstract: | The reverse logistics system is considered as a Markov process with absorbable status. The following characters have been forecasted and analyzed:the probability of returned materials reach certain node after several steps of transfer from the original status; the probability of materials in certain node to be absorbed by the system; the average time that materials stop at certain node and the time that materials are absorbed by the system. |
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| Keywords: | reverse logistics markov process forecast |
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