经济结构性失衡状态下的人民币汇率分析

目前,我国经济结构性失衡主要表现为总需求结构性失衡和货币结构性失衡。就经济的总需求结构而言,我国长期以来都是外需(净出口)拉动作用明显,而内需不足,呈现总需求长期结构性失衡。另外,货币流动性过剩更加剧了中国经济结构的失衡,其中外部失衡表现为贸易盈余迅速上升,内部失衡表现为投资相对于消费的过快增长。根据分析,笔者认为,短期内人民币汇率仍将上升,而长期必将存在一定幅度的下跌,并以此提出相关政策建议。

RMB exchange rate analysis under economy structure unbalance

Now,Our economy appears disequilibrium on the structure of demand and monetary.As for AD,it shows us that foreign demand plays an important role in recent years,and domestic demand is absent.At the same time,currency surplus times structure disequilibrium .Through the analysis,we think the exchange rate of RMB tends to increase in the short-run and decrease in the long-run.And give some advices.