人口老龄化、产业结构调整与经济增长——基于江苏的实证分析

人口老龄化的持续深化已经成为经济社会发展过程中不可逆转的趋势。文章基于江苏省的发展现实,通过联立方程模型分析了人口发展、产业结构调整与经济增长三者之间的关系。研究表明:人口自然增长率的下降对江苏的经济增长有着显著的不利影响;人口老龄化程度的加深会直接对江苏经济增长产生抑制效应,并通过增强产业结构偏离度对经济增长产生间接的负面影响;而人口质量的提升对江苏经济增长则有着积极的促进作用,并在一定程度上显著改善产业结构的偏离度,推动产业结构的优化调整。面对长期低生育率、老龄化持续加深的人口发展形势,江苏需要在政策上进行适时调整,加强教育的发展和人才的引进,促进人口结构与产业结构的匹配,进一步促进经济的开放发展,在提升人口质量、促进产业结构优化调整上下功夫,通过提高劳动生产率推动经济的高质量发展。

Population Aging,Industrial Structure Adjustment and Economic Growth:An Empirical Analysis Based on Jiangsu

The continuous deepening of population aging has become an irreversible trend in the process of economic and social development.Based on the development reality of Jiangsu province,this paper analyses the relationship among population development,industrial structure adjustment and economic growth through simultaneous equation model.The research shows that the decline of natural population growth rate has a significant negative impact on Jiangsu’s economic growth;the deepening of population aging will directly inhibit Jiangsu’s economic growth and have indirect negative impact on economic growth by enhancing the deviation degree of industrial structure;while the improvement of population quality has a positive role in promoting Jiangsu’s economic growth,and to a certain extent,it can significantly improve the deviation of industrial structure and promote the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure.Facing the situation of long-term low fertility and deepening aging population development,Jiangsu needs to make timely adjustments in policies,strengthen the development of education and the introduction of talents,promote the matching of population structure and industrial structure,further promote the opening-up,make efforts to improve population quality and promote the optimization of industrial structure,and promoting high-quality economic development by improving labor productivity.