流动人口定居意愿、收入差异与家庭消费水平研究

伴随出口乏力、投资过剩等问题日益突出,中国经济发展转向消费驱动模式。以往研究主要聚焦于城乡居民消费差距的研究,较少关注高达2.4亿流动人口群体。文章基于2017年全国流动人口动态监测数据,综合运用分位点法、OLS回归和IV工具变量法,研究发现:流动人口定居意愿对消费具有正向效应,具有长期定居意愿的流动人口家庭消费比其他群体高41.5%;随着收入阶层的上升,定居意愿对家庭消费的拉动作用更大,结合区域或转户视角,结论仍然成立。研究认为,政府可以通过户籍改革、增加城市公共服务供给、提升流动人口就业能力等措施提高流动人口收入水平和定居意愿,进而促进中国流动人口整体消费水平。

Study on Residence Intention,Income Difference and Family Consumption Level of Floating Population

Chinas economic development has shifted to a consumption-driven model as problems such as weak exports and excess investment have become increasingly prominent. Previous studies mainly focused on the consumption gap between urban and rural residents,but paid less attention to the floating population of up to 240 million. Based on the dynamic monitoring data of the floating population in China in 2017,the study found that the willingness of the floating population to settle down had a positive effect on consumption,and the household consumption of the floating population with the willingness to settle down for a long time was 41.5% higher than that of other groups through the comprehensive use of the point method,OLS regression and IV instrumental variable method;with the rise of the income class,the willingness to settle down has a greater driving effect on household consumption. Combined with the regional or household transfer perspective,the conclusion is still valid. According to the study,the government can improve the income level and the willingness to settle down of the floating population through household registration reform,increasing the supply of urban public services and improving the employment ability of the floating population,so as to promote the overall consumption level of the floating population in China.