条件固定效应回归的活动目的地选择模型——一个案例研究

本文以城市居民出行目的地选择为研究对象，建立条件固定效应回归（C—Logit）目的地选择模型。结合我国某城市交通小区城市居民日出行数据对模型进行标定求解，并描述目的地选择预测流程，解释了影响居民出行目的地选择的诸多因素。对预测结果进行分析，得到较高的目的地选择预测精度，为从非集计层面研究城市居民出行目的地选择提供了新的思路。

A case study on destination choice with C-Logit model

This paper focus on the travel destination choice of urban residents. It illustrates the methods for how to predict the decision of travel destination choice, and estab- lishes C-Logit model of destination choice. Under the help of the urban travel data from an urban traffic area in our coun- try, it calibrates the model and designs simulation process of destination choice for the residents to explain the many fac- tors which can affect the destination choice decision. The prediction results which have a higher prediction accuracy from the disaggregate level were analyzed. This paper provides a new method to simulate the travel destination choice of urban residents.