An econometric model of U.K. manufacturing employment using survey data on expected output

A model of U.K. manufacturing employment is estimated in which output expectations data are derived from Confederation of British Industry (CBI) survey information. The output expectations terms are highly significant, and equations including them encompass more traditional models that use current and lagged output. In addition, the equations also successfully predict the sharp falls in manufacturing employment that occurred after 1979. One interesting implication of these equations is that the decline in ‘cyclically adjusted’ productivity around 1975, and the subsequent improvement around 1980, can be largely explained in terms of a prolonged period of over-optimistic output expectations by U.K. firms.