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Forecasting h(m)otel guest nights in New Zealand |
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| Authors: | Christine Lim Chialin Chang Michael McAleer |
| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Tourism and Hospitality Management, University of Waikato, Private Bag 3105, Hamilton, New Zealand;2. Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan;3. School of Economics and Commerce, University of Western Australia, Australia;4. Faculty of Economics, Yokohama National University, Japan |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to highlight some time series models which hotel and motel industry practitioners could use to forecast guest nights. Given their considerable practicality, the lodging industry can easily benefit from using these models as forecasts can be obtained at low cost for effective management and planning. Monthly observations are used for estimating the model from 1997(1) to 2006(12). The Holt–Winters and Box–Jenkins ARMA models are able to forecast guest night demand accurately as 99% of the variations in the guest night forecast are associated with variations in actual guest nights in 2007. |
| Keywords: | Lodging industry Guest night demand forecasting Time series models Monthly data Holt&ndash Winters Box&ndash Jenkins |
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