Markov analysis of land use change—an application of stochastic processes to remotely sensed data

The change of land use on San Juan Island, Washington, during the period 1949–1971 is studied to see if the process is compatible with the Markov hypothesis: that past land use is not helpful in predicting future land use, given the present pattern. This hypothesis is tested using a χ²-test and the conclusion is that the data is more compatible with the hypothesis than not. The conclusions have implications for the design of programs for collecting aerial photographic information as well as information systems based on such data. The emphasis of the paper is, however, on the use by planners for projecting land use change when the Markov hypothesis holds.