Can a Wealthy Economy Gain from an EU Membership? Adjustment Costs and Long Term Welfare Effects of Full Integration—The Norwegian Case |
| |
Authors: | Bowitz Einar Fæhn Taran Grünfeld Leo A. Moum Knut |
| |
Affiliation: | (1) Research Department, Statistics Norway, P.O. Box 8131 Dep., N-0033 Oslo, Norway |
| |
Abstract: | We employ a large scale macroeconometric model to study adjustment problems and long term welfare effects of a Norwegian EU-membership. Accession costs depend significantly on the country's level of GDP, the size of its agricultural sector and tariff and VAT revenues as these elements determine the net membership contribution. Without the transfers, integrating the economy into EU generates a small welfare gain. This result is strongly affected by a long period with under-utilisation of resources. With the net contribution included, we identify a welfare loss. This is especially so if fiscal policy is changed to maintain the public sector budgetary balance. |
| |
Keywords: | economic integration EU participation macroeconometric modelling |
本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |