“金砖四国”经济周期互动与中国核心地位——基于SVAR的实证分析

"金砖四国"作为抗衡世界经济旧秩序的新生力量被寄予厚望,而四国之间政治经济的差异性使人们对其合作前景产生疑问。本文研究发现,差异性并没有阻碍它们成为紧密互动的群体,在中国核心的影响下四国经济周期形成高度的协同性和互动性。SVAR模型的脉冲响应分析显示,中国经济冲击效应对其他三国都有明显影响,并且冲击效应在4个国家中最强;方差分解显示,中国经济冲击分别可以解释巴西、印度、俄罗斯经济波动的60%、46%、27%。

Business Cycles Interaction of BRICs and China's Kernel Status: An Empirical Analysis based on SVAR Model

While BRIC is given highly expectations for being considered as the strength to contend with old world economic order,great varieties of the four countries make people question of the prospect of BRIC cooperation.This paper finds that great diversity of BRICs makes no obstacle in the way of their interaction,and that business cycles of BRICs are of high synchronization and interaction with the help of Chinese crucial influence.Impulse response function analysis of SVAR model proves that China′s shocks are of the highest magnitude in BRICs and have obvious influence on the other three countries′ economy.Variance decomposition displays that China′s economic shocks can separately explain sixty,forty-six and twenty-seven percent of economic fluctuations of Brazil,India and Russia.