产业生命周期理论的发展评述

产业生命周期理论起源于产品生命周期理论，它是指整个产业从诞生到衰退的演进过程中，产业内厂商数目、市场结构及产业创新动态变化的理论，属于现代产业组织学的重要分支之一。西方对其研究起始于产品生命周期，经过一批学者们的研究，相继发展了A—U模型、G—K模型和K-G模型，使得该理论趋于成熟。后来的研究对以上模型进行了深化和拓展，重点对产业周期中企业规模的演化、企业行为特征以及与创新的关系等进行了研究，将该理论的研究推向微观，更加深入和具体。文章梳理了该理论演化的基础，对现有研究成果进行了简要评述，并指出未来可能的研究方向与重点，为我国进行相关研究的学者们提供了思路和方向。

Review of the Development of Industrial Life Cycle Theory

Industrial life cycle theory originated from product life cycle theory. It refers to the theory about the number of firms, market structure and the dynamic of industrial innovation in the process from the introduction to decline, and is belong to the one sub branch of modem industrial organization theory. The research in western began from product life cycle, and enriched by many scholars. A-U, G-K, and K-G model was developed, and the theory becomes mature. The following research extend the above models to emphasis the evolution of relationship between firm size, corporate action, and innovation, push the theory into micro layer. Based on the analysis of the evolution of existing theory, abstracted review and the key point of future study was outlined to point out the road for other scholars.