全面对外开放与区域协调发展:基于价值链互动视角

本文通过构建包含国内价值链(NVC)与全球价值链(GVC)联动的多区域投入产出模型,界定和区分了外需对中国国内各区域在GVC和NVC中增加值收益及增值能力的影响,进而分析了外需对国内区域垂直分工和协调发展的促进作用。结果发现,首先,1997-2012年外需对中国各区域增加值收益攀升具有显著促进作用,其中欧、美、日等发达经济体的拉动作用占主导地位但呈快速减弱趋势,而发展中经济体和世界其他地区(ROW)的拉动作用明显提升,这为中国全面对外开放战略的实施提供了经验依据。其次,外需驱动下中国东部沿海、南部沿海和京津地区在增加值收益快速提高的同时却陷入了NVC增值能力不足甚至为负的困境,而中西部地区受益于外需驱动下的国际和国内垂直分工效应增值能力得以提升。此外,我们还利用结构路径分析方法识别了外需对区域间增加值流转的生产层级特征以及关键生产路径分布,为价值链互动视角下中国分区域-分阶段的产业升级路径提供了有益参考和启示。

All-Around Opening-Up and Regional Coordinated Development:Based on the Value Chain Interaction Perspective

This paper first constructs a multiregional input-output(MRIO)model that includes the linkage between the global value chain(GVC)and the national value chain(NVC),and then defines and distinguishes the value-added income and capacity of China's regions within the GVC or NVC driven by external demand.Second,the paper measures and analyses the role of external demand in promoting the vertical division of labour and coordinated development in national regions.The results indicate that from 1997 to 2012 external demand played an important role in promoting value-added income growth in several regions in China.The pulling effect of developed economies,such as Europe,the United States and Japan,was dominant,showing a rapid weakening trend,while that of developing economies and the rest of the world(RoW)has been increasing significantly,providing empirical evidence for the implementation of China’s all-around opening-up strategy.The rapid increase in value-added income in eastern and southern coastal areas driven by external demand has also fallen into the dilemma of negative NVC value-added capacity,while the increase in the value-added capacity of the central and western regions has been benefiting from the international and domestic vertical division of labour effect driven by external demand.Moreover,this paper also uses structural path analysis(SPA)to identify the supply and demand characteristics in the interregional spillover effect driven by external demand,which provides useful empirical evidence on China’s path of sub-regional and phased industrial upgrading from the perspective of value chain interaction.