“一带一路”数字经济产业聚集发展研究

近年来,合作发展数字经济已经成为全球越来越多国家参与共建“一带一路”的重要领域。数字经济产业聚集作为数字经济发展的重要形态,正在对“一带一路”沿线的经济发展产生影响。根据数字经济产业范围的界定,运用空间经济学的思想和方法,围绕“一带一路”沿线67个主要国家和地区所构成的8个区域,以各区域的信息通信技术服务出口额和高科技出口额作为数字经济产业观测变量,从区域不平衡状况、区域空间相关性和局部分布特征三个维度,应用泰尔指数法和空间相关性检验分析沿线数字经济产业发展的区域不平衡程度以及总体和局部区域的聚集特征。结果显示,沿线数字经济产业发展长期极不平衡,且总体处于低聚集状态,而局部不同区域间的聚集程度差异较大。通过格兰杰检验和相关性分析进一步发现,沿线数字经济产业聚集程度的变化与沿线区域经济密度、区域人均GDP的增长之间存在“引致变化”关系,虽然这种变化关系总体呈正相关,但局部不同区域的相关性差异较大,表明“一带一路”数字经济产业目前已呈现出聚集发展趋势,但由于总体聚集程度较低,对沿线区域经济增长的正向推动作用不足。运用经典的OLS模型和空间SAR、SEM模型,对沿线各区域2007—2018年的面板数据进行实证计量分析发现,网络外部性对沿线数字经济产业聚集的影响并不显著,“本地市场效应”外部性仅对沿线信息通信产业聚集影响显著,而制约“一带一路”数字经济产业聚集发展的因素主要来自呈显著负效应的马歇尔外部性、雅各布斯外部性和自然禀赋外部性。“一带一路”沿线区域和国家应进一步加强数字经济基础设施建设合作,建设跨区域数字经济产业聚集区,构建高科技产业生态圈,提升国民“数字素养”。我国在加快形成“双循环”新发展格局的形势下,应重视数字经济产业聚集对以“一带一路”为核心的国际大循环带来的影响,采取有效措施发挥数字经济产业聚集对沿线区域经济增长的正向推动作用,把区域数字经济产业的不平衡差距控制在合理范围,让“一带一路”数字经济合作方共同获利。

The Research on the Development of Industrial Agglomeration of Digital Economy Along the Belt and Road

In recent years,the joint development of digital economy has become the important field where more and more countries taking part in the construction of the Belt and Road.As an important form of digital economy development,industrial agglomeration is having impact on the economic development in areas along the Belt and Road.According to the definition of the industrial scope of digital economy,using he ideas and methods of spatial economics,taking 8 regions consisting of 67 countries along the Belt and Road as the example,taking the export amount of information communication technology service and hightech as the variable of digital economy industry,and from such three dimensions as regional imbalance situation,regional spatial correlation,and partial imbalance situation,the authors test and analyze the regional imbalance status,and the overall and partial spatial correlationcharacteristicsof the Belt and Road digital economy industry with the help of Theil index and spatial correlation.The results show that the digital economy industry of the Belt and Road generally presents long-term imbalance and low level of agglomeration,which is very different in different regions.Through analysis of Granger Test and correlation analysis,it is also found that there is the“induced change”relation among changes in the agglomeration level of digital economy industry along the Belt and Road,regional economic density,and the growth of regional GDP per capita;though the relation is generally positive,it is very different in different regions,which demonstrates the trend of agglomeration development.But,because of the general low level of agglomeration,the positive effect of agglomeration on the economic development along the Belt and Road is insufficient.By using OLS,SAR and SEM econometric models,the authorscarry out the quantitative analysis on the panel data of each region along the Belt and Road from 2007 to 2018.It is found that:network externalities has no significant impact on the digital economy industrial agglomeration in areas along the Belt and Road;the externality of local market scale only has significant impact on the industry of information and communication in areas along the Belt and Road;and the constraints mainly come from Mar,Jacobs and"natural endowment"externalities having significant negative effects.Regions and countries along the Belt and Road should further strengthen cooperation in infrastructure of digital economy,establish the cross-region industrial agglomeration area of digital economy,build the high-tech industrial ecosystem,and improve the“digital quality”of all the citizens.Under the background of accelerating the new development pattern of dual circulation,we should pay more attention to the impact of digital economy industrial agglomeration on the international circulation taking the Belt and Road as the core,adopt effective countermeasures to give full play to the positive role of digital economy industrial agglomeration in promoting the reginal economic growth in areas along the Blet and Road,keep the imbalance level of regional digital economy industries within a rational scope,and create a win-win situation among all the participants of digital economy along the Belt and Road.