中国粮食生产变化类型研究

中国粮食产量自1998年达到历史最高水平后连续下降,2003年粮食产量降至1998年后最低点。该文选取1998年和2003年为典型年份,通过建立粮食产量变化模型,从国家、省、县域三种尺度分别计算了播种面积和单产变化导致的粮食产量变化量,分析各自对粮食产量变化的影响和作用,确定不同尺度上粮食产量变化的主导因素,为国家粮食生产和粮食安全问题的解决提供科学依据。

STUDIES ON THE TYPES OF GRAIN PRODUCTION CHANGES IN CHINA(1998-2003)

Since 1998 when the grain production in China reached its peak,the grain production in China has kept going down continuously.In 2003,the grain production dropped to the lowest level since 1998.This paper selects 1998 and 2003 as 2 typical years.Through establishing model for grain production change,this paper calculates the sowing areas separately by 3 different measurements:as country,province and county,and also the changing quantity of grain production induced by changes in single yield.It analyzes each measurement's influence and function to changes in grain production,makes sure the key elements for grain production changes by different measurements,thus provides scientific accordance for national grain production and for solving problems of grain safety.