Do Reservation Native Americans Vote with Their Feet? A Re‐examination of Native American Migration, 1985–1990

Native Americans suffer some of the highest rates of poverty and unemployment and the lowest rates of human capital attainment among racial minority groups in the United States, but economists understand very little about the impact these conditions have on the migration patterns of Native Americans. In 1994, a seminal article on this topic appeared in this journal (Cebula and Belton 1994). In their article, the authors suggest that the low levels of human capital and poor conditions in Native American reservations should make Native American migration sensitive to interstate differences in AFDC spending levels. Their hypothesis is confirmed for Native American migration over the 1985–1990 period. This paper refines their analysis by using micro-level rather than aggregate data, and by controlling for reservation residence and the impact of informal social safety nets in the source region. It is found that human capital factors and expected wage differences overwhelm interstate differences in public welfare spending and that informal safety nets in the source region dampen off-reservation migration. These findings suggest that state AFDC spending levels cannot explain contemporary Native American migration patterns.