油库区火灾应急过程风险因素-事故情景结构方程模型研究

为了探讨油库区火灾应急过程中风险因素与事故情景间的量化作用关系,揭示事故发展演化的基本规律,通过对近50年来国内外240例油库区典型火灾爆炸事故的统计分析,从人-物-环境-管理4个方面,建立了二者间的结构方程模型。结果表明：各因素与情景间影响关系显著,其中人的因素影响系数最大,为0.46,且对火灾扩大的情景影响更大,而“误判断”这一具体因素事件最易发生。所构建的结构方程模型能较清晰地量化应急过程风险因素与情景间的作用关系,可为揭示事故发生发展的作用机理提供一定的科学依据,同时为油库区火灾事故应急安全管理提供参考。

Research on risk factors and accident scenarios structural equation model for fire emergency processes in oil reservoir area

In order to quantify the relationship between risk factors and accident scenarios in the process of oil reservoir fire emergency response, and to reveal the basic law of accident development and evolution, a structural equation model was established through statistical analysis of 240 typical fire and explosion accidents in oil reservoir areas at home and abroad in the past 50 years, combining four aspects of human, material, environment and management. The model estimation results show that the relationship between various factors and scenarios is significant, among which the human factor has the largest influence coefficient of 046, and the factor has a greater impact on the fire expansion scenario. While the specific factor of DK]"misjudgment" is the most likely to occur. The structural equation model constructed can clearly quantify the relationship between risk factors and scenarios in the emergency process, which provides a scientific basis for revealing the mechanism of accident development and provides a reference for the emergency safety management of fire accidents in oil reservoir areas.