人口老龄化、推迟退休年龄对资本流动的影响

本文基于地区人口老龄化进程和经济发展的不对称性构建先富后老、先富未老、未富先老的模型结构,在开放经济下建立一个四地区世代交叠模型来分析中国人口老龄化对资本流动的影响。通过分析初始均衡和最终均衡之间经济变量的动态变化,本文结果显示资本会由人口快速老龄化地区流向老龄化速度相对较慢地区,这个结论意味着人口的快速老龄化使得中国成为资本输出大国。随着人口红利拐点到来,人口老龄化会显著降低中国的储蓄率,并导致资本输出减少。文章通过推迟退休年龄的政策试验,旨在为应对人口老龄化问题提供重要的参照作用。

The Impact of Aging Population and Delayed Retirement on Capital Flows

This paper uses a four-region,Overlapping Generation model to estimate the potential impacts of the different aging processes across regions and pension system reforms on the international capital flow.The results show that capital will flow from the fast aging region to the relatively slow aging region.China,for example,will become a capital exporter.As the demographic dividend disappears,the aging population will decrease the saving rate and current account surplus in china.This paper also tries to conduc...