新兴市场国家的汇率波动与出口:一个经验分析

现有的中外文献已经对发达国家间的汇率波动与贸易之间的关系做了很多相关分析，但就汇率波动与贸易之间的关系没有取得一致性的结论。本文利用协整分析和误差修正模型，针对新兴市场国家的汇率波动与出口的关系进行了经验分析，结论是：汇率波动会在一定程度上抑制新兴市场国家的出口，但对某些新兴市场国家出口的影响并不明显，其影响程度随一国经济发展水平、经济规模和开放度的差异而有所区别。

Exchange Rate Variability and International Trade of Emerging Market Countries: An Empirical Analysis

Most of current studies on the relationship between exchange rate variability and international trade have focused on the developed countries, and a common consensus is not available. This paper studies the same relationship in Emerging Market Countries with Cointegration analyses and Error Correction Model( ECM). The results show that the exchange rate variability restrained the export in some Emerging Market Countries, and it did not in others. The effects are different as the counties vary in the level of economic development, economy scale and the openness.