储备型汇率制度:发行非国际货币的发展中国家(地区)之选择

国际货币与非国际货币之区分构成了当前国际金融体系典型的非对称特征。该种区分必将影响不同国家间汇率及汇率制度的选择。本文试图提出一种观点:发行非国际货币的发展中国家所选择的汇率制度可以形容为"储备型汇率制度"。在该种制度下,中央银行对外汇市场不断进行干预以实现其国际货币储备的不断积累,由此而造成本币长期贬值(或低估)和贸易的持续顺差。该种观点不仅与当今世界汇率与汇率制度分布之事实相一致,而且还可通过一个反映发展中国家中央银行行为的动态优化模型进行严格的理论证明。尽管"储备型汇率制度"可能与当前IMF所规定的反"货币操纵"条款相冲突,但是在当前这种不公正和非对称的国际货币体系下,该制度无疑是发展中国家的最优选择。

Accumulation-Oriented Exchange Regime:Choice of LDC’s Issue of Non-international Currencies

The distinction between international and non-international currencies is a typical asymmetric feature in the current global financial system.Such a distinction must impact on the choice of exchange regime and exchange rate by different countries.In this paper,we provide an argument that the exchange regime adopted by LDC's who issue noninternational currencies might be regarded as an accumulation-oriented exchange regime(AOER).Under this regime,the central bank will continuously interfere in the foreign exchange market in order to accumulate international currency,thereby devaluate domestic currency and make trade surplus constantly.This is consistent with the observed distribution of exchange rates and exchange regimes across the world.It can also be demonstrated by a simply dynamic optimization model that reflects the optimum behavior of a central bank from LDC's.Although AOER might be in contrast to the provision with regard to "currency manipulator " set up by IMF,it is however an optimum choice by LDC 's under the current asymmetrical international financial order,which itself is unfair to LDC's who issue non-international currencies.