|
|||||
|
|
Adjustment dynamics and the natural rate: an account of UK unemployment |
|
| Authors: | Henry B; Karanassou M; Snower DJ |
| Institution: | z Centre for Economic Forecasting, London Business School, Sussex Place, Regent's Park, London NW1 4SA, UK E-mail: B.Henry@lbs.lon.ac.uk y Department of Economics, Queen Mary and Westfield College, University of London, Mile End Road, London E1 4NS, UK E-mail: M.Karanassou@qmw.ac.uk w Department of Economics, Birkbeck College, 7 Gresse Street, University of London, London W1P 2LL, UK CEPR, and IZA E-mail: DSnower@econ.bbk.ac.uk |
| Abstract: | This paper challenges what is the standard account of UK employment,namely that the major swings in unemployment over the past 25years are due predominantly to movements in the underlying empiricalnatural rate of unemployment (NRU). Our analysis suggests thatthe UK NRU has remained reasonably stable through time and thatthe medium-run swings in unemployment are due, instead, to veryprolonged after-effects of persistent (transitory but long-lasting)shocks. We argue that (i) past UK labour market shocks haveprolonged after-effects on unemployment due to interactionsamong different lagged adjustment processes in the labour market;(ii) many of the important shocks that have hit the UK labourmarket over the past 25 years have been persistent; and (iii)the persistence of the shocks is complementary to the persistenceof the lagged adjustment processes in generating movements ofUK employment. |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 Oxford 等数据库收录！ | |