服务贸易与货物贸易的替代性及差异分析

通过多层面考察服务贸易与货物贸易的发展现状,利用131个国家1982—2005年间的贸易总量和差额的数据,从四个视角探析两者的替代性及其差异性。结果表明,无论是发达国家还是发展中国家,服务贸易与货物贸易在短期内都存在互补性,在长期内总量之间都存在替代性而差额之间都存在互补性,发达国家长期内的替代性强于而互补性弱于发展中国家。

Analysis on Substitution and Differentiation between Service Trade and Merchandise Trade

This paper introduces the status quo between service trade and merchandise trade in many aspects, investigats their effects on substitution and differentiation in four perspectives based on the total trade amount and balance of trade of 131 countries during 1982～2005. The results show that there is supplementary effect between service trade and merchandise trade over a short period, and substitution effect between total amount and supplementary effect between balance of trade over a long period. Compared with developing countries, developed countries have stronger substitution effect and weaker supplementary effect on a long-term basis.