Lessons for Europe from the U.S. Growth Resurgence

This paper analyses the sources of U.S. labour productivitygrowth in the late 1990s and presents projections for both outputand labour productivity growth. We show that investment in informationtechnology (IT) played a substantial role in the U.S. productivityrevival and that similar trends are evident in data for otherleading OECD countries. We then outline a methodology for projectingtrend output and productivity growth for the broadly definedU.S. economy. Our base-case projection puts trend productivitygrowth at 1.78 percent per year over the next decade with arange of 1.14 to 2.38 percent, reflecting fundamental uncertaintiesabout the rate of technical progress in IT-production and investmentin IT-equipment and software. Our central projection is belowthe average growth rate of 2.07 percent during 1995 -2000. Similarprojections for Europe must await more complete information.(JEL J2)