贸易保护主义新趋势下金融约束与外商直接投资研究——基于我国行业数据的面板门限模型分析

外商直接投资作为经济体宏观流动性的重要组成部分,对于经济发展的长期贡献取决于其实际利用项目与本国金融环境和贸易条件构成的互补与替代关系,对于境内市场主体的投资行为也具有重大的外溢效应。我国金融市场近年来虽然有了长足的发展,但是仍然存在信息不对称和有限担保等金融摩擦现象,同时金融去杠杆的宏观环境使得企业部门面对的融资约束和融资成本日益增加。与此同时,全球贸易保护主义有所抬头,美国更是于2018年3月宣布对从我国进口的600亿美元商品大规模加征关税,并限制我国企业对美投资并购。在这样的国际背景下,试图通过面板门限模型将行业贸易条件纳入金融约束与外商直接投资的统一研究框架,从而发掘贸易条件、金融发展和外商直接投资的潜在内生关系。

Financial Constraint and Foreign Direct Investment under the New Situation of International Trade:A Panel Threshold Model Analysis Based on the Data of the Industry in China

Foreign direct investment,as an important part of the aggregate liquidity of an economy,has a long-term contribution to the economic growth,which depends on the complementary and substitution relationship between its actual utilized projects and the domestic financial environment and terms of trade. It also has a significant spillover effect on the investment behavior of domestic market entities. Although China's financial market has made a considerable progress in recent years,there is still financial friction such as information asymmetry and limited pledgeability. At the same time,the macro-environment of financial deleveraging causes corporations to face increased financial constraints and financing costs. At the same time,global trade protectionism is on the rise. The United States has even announced in March 2018 that it would impose large-scale tariffs on imports of goods worth 60 billion U. S. dollars from China and restrict Chinese enterprises’investment in U. S. In this international context,this paper attempts to incorporate industry trade conditions into the unified research framework of financial constraints and foreign direct investment flows through the panel threshold model,so as to explore the potential endogenous relationships of trade conditions,financial development,and foreign direct investment.