人口出生率、年龄结构与金融发展

基于Basso等人研究的理论模型,并扩展解析了出生率对金融发展的作用机制,同时运用我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)2005-2016年的面板数据,实证研究了人口出生率、年龄结构对金融发展的影响。结果发现:(1)人口出生率、年龄结构对金融发展具有显著的负向作用,这一结论在改变因变量和其他控制变量,增加多种估计方法时仍然成立,符合"老年安全假说";(2)在我国计划生育政策控制较弱的地区,人口出生率、年龄结构则显著正向影响金融发展,这与该地区人力资本稀缺有关。因此,在推进我国金融改革与发展的过程中,商业银行应转变金融服务方式、增加产品供给和优化网点布局,以满足人口条件变动对金融服务的各类需求。

Fertility Rate,Age Structure and Financial Development

Based on the model of Basso et al,this paper uses data on fertility rate,age structure and financial development in 31 provinces of China over the period 2005-2016 to test the relationship between fertility rate,age structure and financial development after introducing the mechanism of fertility rate and financial development with the basic and extend model. The results of regression show that 1)the fertility rate and age structure are strong negatively with lower financial development,after controlling for several factors,other dependence variable and independence variable and using other estimators,the conclusion is still valid,and it's in accord with"the Old-age Security Hypothesis"theory. And 2)the fertility rate and age structure are strongly positive with financial development as the result of human capital scarcity in the special regions which the policy of China's family planning is more weakened. Therefore,putting financial reform and development in advance,banking sectors should improve the financial service, increase supply of financial products and optimize bank site layout to meet various the needs of financial services arising from the change of demographic conditions.