基于人口规模和城市化水平测算的城乡建设用地需求预测研究——以辽东凤城市为例

以辽宁东部凤城市为研究区域,采用1997年至2005年凤城市的人口、经济等统计数据,从作为土地需求预测基础的社会化发展水平预测入手,利用不同的预测模型对凤城市的人口规模、城镇化水平进行预测,并通过对比各预测模型的测算数据,提出科学方案并做最优选择,最终得出适宜凤城市发展的测算数据,以此为依据预测城乡建设用地需求量,为凤城市城乡建设用地合理发展及新一轮的土地利用总体规划修编提供数据支撑和理论依据。

Forecast Demand of Urban and Rural Construction Land Based on Reckon Population Size and the Level of Urbanization: A Case Study of Fengcheng City

The paper was targeted at Fengcheng City in Liaodong Province as the study area. As a basis for land demand forecast from the forecast level of development of social, reckon urban village population size and the level of urbanization, based on the data of economic statistics from 1997 to 2005, comparison of the metbods of measurement data, proposed scientific program and made the optimal choice, ultimately come to appropriate measure of urban development data of Fengcheng City, forecasting demand of urban and rural construction land, for the urban and rural construction reasonable development to provide data support and theoretical basis,