外部关税变动对中国区域劳动力就业的影响

本文利用UNCTAD数据和中国人口普查微观数据,基于地区就业的行业结构和贸易对象国对中国征收的行业层面的进口关税,构建地区层面外部关税变动指标,研究外部关税变动对中国区域劳动力就业的影响。研究发现:(1)外部关税下降幅度越高的地区,总体就业、可贸易部门和不可贸易部门的就业增加也越多;(2)出口和内销规模扩张的就业创造效应、生产率提升的就业破坏效应,是外部关税下降影响地区可贸易部门就业的重要渠道;(3)外部关税下降带来的地区可贸易部门出口扩张、就业增加和工资上涨,通过产业关联和消费驱动等正向溢出效应增加地区不可贸易部门就业,通过就业的部门间再配置效应减少地区不可贸易部门就业;(4)外部关税下降对地区不可贸易部门就业的影响呈现出先抑制后促进的动态演进过程,这与外部关税变动下中国区域劳动力供给的调整紧密相关。此外,外部关税变动对地区不同属性劳动力就业的影响效果存在显著差异。本文的研究结论对于外部关税变动下稳定区域劳动力就业的相关政策制定具有一定的参考意义。

The Impact of Tariff Abroad Changes on China’s Regional Labor Employment

Utilizing UNCTAD data and China’s census micro-data,this paper constructs a region-level tariff abroad change index based on the industry structure of regional employment and the industry-level import tariffs imposed on China by its trade partners;then,this paper studies the impact of tariff abroad changes on China’s regional labor employment.The results show that:(1)The higher tariff abroad reduction,the greater employment gains in overall,tradable and non-tradable sectors.(2)The employment creation effect of export and domestic sales expansion and the employment destruction effect of productivity improvement are the important channels through which tariff abroad reduction affects the employment of regional tradable sectors.(3)Export expansion,employment gains and wage increases in regional tradable sector arising from tariff abroad reduction increase employment in regional non-tradable sectors through positive spillover effects such as industry linkages and consumption drives,and reduce employment in regional non-tradable sectors through the inter-sectoral reallocation effect of employment.(4)The effect of decreasing tariff abroad on employment in non-tradable sectors in China shows a dynamic evolution process of first suppressing and then promoting,which is closely related to the adjustment of China’s regional labor supply under the change of tariff abroad.In addition,there are significant differences in the effects of tariff abroad changes on the employment of labor with different attributes in different regions.The conclusion of this paper provides a valuable reference for the formulation of relevant policies to stabilize regional labor employment amidst tariff abroad changes.