| Abstract: | Futurists often employ methods such as Delphi to construct forecasts of critical events. The events are typically of a technological, sociological, environmental, or economic nature and are sometimes directly influenced by political actors. The studies that examine the events are often conducted by researchers and knowledgeable participants who reside within the country in which the events may take place. It is often the case, however, that multinational firms would like to forecast such events in countries in which they have neither substantial presence nor informed expertise. Managers and analysts who have access to local information that is not widely disseminated can sometimes make immediate use of it to obtain a competitive advantage. An example is managers and other professionals who have formed impressions based on local information that is legally available to everyone but is not widely known at the moment. Access to this type of information may be limited, however, if local persons are reluctant to share opinions that are critical of government officials and policies. We present a method using Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS) that allows local knowledgeable people to discuss their views anonymously. We apply this to an analysis of Hong Kong monetary policy. |
