Competition, herd behavior, and credit cycles: evidence from major Swiss Banks

I use time-series analysis to investigate the dynamic interdependence of the credit supplies of the three major Swiss banks from 1987 to 1996. The statistical results document that all three banks reacted to their competitors’ changes in lending. The estimated individual credit supply functions are then used in counterfactual experiments to study the total lending of these three banks (which is roughly half the bank lending in Switzerland) under different assumptions regarding leader/follower behavior. These simulations highlight the role of competitive behavior for the persistence of aggregate credit cycles.