中国农业投入和产出的关系——基于偏最小二乘回归法的分析

利用1985—2006年关于中国农业投入与产出的相关数据,采用偏最小二乘回归法,对中国农业投入和产出的关系进行了研究。研究发现:我国农业产出主要受家庭经营费用支出、国家财政支农支出和化肥投入量的影响,受播种面积的影响不大;农林牧渔业从业人员数越多,农业产出反而越小。提出如下建议:增加国家财政支农支出,以提高农村机械化水平和加强农业基础设施建设;改革农村土地流转模式,以促进农村剩余劳动力转移,进而提高农业生产效率。

The Relationship between Input and Output of Agriculture in China:Analysis Based on Partial Least Squares Regression Model

Using the statistical data about agricultural input and output during 1985-2006,this paper analyzes the relationship between input and output of agriculture in China by the partial least squares regression method.The result shows that:the agricultural output is mainly affected by the expenditure for household management,the financial expenditure for supporting agriculture and the fertilizer input,and is less affected by the input of cultivated area;the more the labour force engaged in farming,animal husband...