2011年全球经济与市场回顾和2012年展望

2011年,受欧洲主权债务危机不断蔓延的影响,发达国家经济复苏缓慢并呈现逐步分化趋势,新兴市场国家作为全球经济复苏主引擎的作用仍然突出,但也面临着经济增长趋缓的困扰。2012年,由于欧债危机隐患未除、全球金融系统依然脆弱以及发达国家自身结构性问题远未解决,全球经济方向将面临较大不确定性。未来新兴市场经济体有望继续充当全球经济复苏的主要动力,但增速将趋于放缓。发达经济体将维持宽松的货币政策,并将迫于财政赤字压力采取财政紧缩措施,而新兴经济体预计将实施相对稳健的货币政策与较为宽松的财政政策,以应对通货膨胀和经济增速趋缓的双重压力。

The 2011 Review of Global Economy and Markets and the 2012 Outlook

In 2011,the economic recovery of developed countries,suffering from the spillover effects of European sovereign debt crisis,was slow and gradually divergent across different countries.The emerging markets are still the engines of global economic recovery,but meanwhile,they also face the trouble of slowdown in economic growth.In 2012,because the European debt crisis does not mitigate,the global financial system is still vulnerable and the structural problems of developed countries remain unresolved,the outlook of the global economic recovery is full of uncertainty.The emerging markets are expected to continue to be the main driving force of global economic recovery,but their growth will tend to slow down.The monetary policies of developed economies will keep loose and their fiscal policies will tighten under the pressure of huge deficits.The emerging markets will implement moderately sound monetary policy and relatively loose fiscal policy to eliminate the double pressure of rise in inflation and slowdown in economic growth.