关键货币境外余额的国际政治经济学——美国的境外美元管理及其对中国的影响

关键货币境外余额是重要的国际经济变量,它不仅会影响关键货币的国际地位和全球金融市场稳定,也关系到境外关键货币持有国的经济稳定和储备资产安全。关键货币国通过经济、外交甚至军事手段对境外货币余额的规模、资产配置、地区分布以及持有者结构实施管理,以便实现对外融资、获取经济安全和榨取财富等多重目标。在金融危机背景下,基于经济安全、国际博弈和对外融资的目的,美国大致会阶段性地吸引美元回流并调控其在国外的分布,但美元霸权地位和美国国内的两党政治体制将使其境外美元余额的规模在长期内进一步扩张,因此人民币近期仍面临升值压力,欧洲和新兴市场国家金融动荡将会持续甚至加剧。随着中国国内资产价格的下跌,美元的升值和回流在中期时段内可能会冲击中国宏观经济稳定;如果美国不能控制其财政赤字,中国将长期面临美债和美元违约的巨大风险。中国需要降低宏观脆弱性,加速调整经济发展模式,从根本上摆脱美元陷阱。

The International Political Economy of Foreign-held Balances of Key Currencies:the U.S.Foreign Dollar Management and Implications for China

Foreign-held balances of key currencies is an important international economic variable which affects not only the hegemony of the key currency and global financial market stability,but also the economic stability and reserve assets security of foreign holders.The key currency country can regulate the size,asset allocation,geographical distribution and holder structure of the foreign-held balances through economic,diplomatic and even military means to meet the need for external financing,economic security and wealth extraction.For the sake of economic security,international bargaining and financing in the context of financial crisis,the U.S.may periodically recycle the foreign holdings and regulate its distribution abroad.However,the dollar hegemony and the U.S.two-party political regime will make the size of foreign dollar balances expand continuously for a long time.RMB will face greater pressure of appreciation and the financial turmoil of Euro zone and emerging market countries may continue and even intensify in the near future;with China’s domestic asset price fall,the dollar’s appreciation and backflow in the medium term could impact China’s macroeconomic stability;if the U.S.can not control its financial deficit,China would bear huge risk of treasuries and dollar default in the long run.China needs to reduce macroeconomic vulnerabilities and accelerate the adjustment of economic development model to cast off dollar trap entirely.