基于干旱过程模拟的旱情综合评估方法应用研究

在对国内外干旱评估方法研究进行综述的基础上,指出干旱起因是降水偏少,但发展成灾,则有一个缓慢渐进过程,它不仅取决于降水、气温等气象条件,还与地形、土壤、作物等因素密切相关。考虑到旱灾的成因是多条件的,旱灾的影响和体现也是多方面的,只有结合干旱发展的各阶段,才能全面地认识和评估旱情。利用基于分布式水文模拟的干旱模型,在完整模拟干旱发生发展和结束过程的基础上,整合多种旱情指标,提出能反映干旱发展过程主要特征的旱情综合评估方法体系,并以长江上游川渝地区2006年严重干旱事件为例,开展了应用示例研究。

Comprehensive Assessment of Drought Severity Based on Its Evolution Course Simulation

The research status of drought severity assessment was reviewed firstly. It was noticed that the beginning of drought is the scarcity of precipitation, but there is a slow and gradual evolution course to cause final disaster loss. The key factors are not only precipitation and temperature, but also the landform, soil, crop and others. By using distributed hydrological modeling, a drought model was introduced to simulate the drought developing processes. Furthermore, according to the simulation results of the drought model, the method and index system of comprehensive assessment were proposed. The assessment method was demonstrated in the upper Yangtze River basin to review the evolution course of drought events of 2006.