基于灰靶理论的水库调度方案决策模型及其应用

为获取合理性较高的水库调度方案,引入灰靶理论并进行改进,建立了基于灰靶理论的水库调度方案决策模型。该模型的特点在于可动态设置权重分配系数来提高指标权重的适用性,同时评价过程考虑了指标间的相关性,用马氏距离计算待选方案靶心度,并进一步以灰靶环数为评判指标进行方案相对优劣排序,以此增强评价结果的可信度和直观性。以三峡水库为例进行防洪调度方案评价决策,应用结果验证了所建模型的合理性和可行性,同时,模型在决策方案的推荐方式上有所改变,为水库实时调度管理提供了一种新思路。

Reservoir operation decision-making model based on grey target theory and its application

In order to obtain a reasonable plan of reservoir operation, the grey target theory is introduced and improved, and a reservoir operation decision-making model based on grey target theory is established. The model is capable of dynamically setting weight allocation coefficients to improve the applicability of index weight, and considering the correlation among indexes to enhance the credibility and intuitive of assessment results by applying Mahalanobis distance to calculate the bull's-eye degree of each non-inferior solution and using grey target scores as ranking standard. Taking the Three Gorges Reservoir as an example, the application results verify the rationality and feasibility of the model. Meanwhile, the model has changed the way of recommending decision plans, which provides a new idea for reservoir operation management.