经济全球化下的产业结构演进趋势与政策

本文提出近20年来中国产业结构演进的U型轨迹假说，并予以验证。论文比较了U型轨迹与同期政府产业结构政策的关系，指出我国近20年来产业结构的演变与各相应时期的政府产业结构政策之间，不存在密切的因果关系，相反，开放市场经济中的全球化市场力量具有更大的影响，在经济全球化尤其是中国加入WTO大背景下，产业结构政策是一种无效的经济政策，与此同时，产业结构则继续根据经济发展的内在规律而不断演进。

The Progressing Trend and the Policy of Industrial Structure in the Context of Globalization

This paper puts forward a U-form locus hypothesis about the progress of industrial structure of China in the past two decades and proves it empirically. The paper analyzes the relationship between the U-form locus and the governmental policies of industrial structure in the corresponding period. It puts forward that in the past two decades there were no directly cause-effect relations between the progress of industrial structure and the governmental policies of industrial structure in the corresponding period. On the contrary, the global market force in an open market economy played a larger part. In the context of economic globalization and especially after China's entry into WTO, the policies of industrial structure become ineffective. Meanwhile, industrial structure is gradually progressing in accordance with the intrinsic law of economic growth.