Interregional economic-demographic model of the Tokyo region

The Tokyo Metropolitan Area consists of four prefectures, and experienced a rapid social inflow of population from other areas in 1960s, and a removal of residential population from CBD to suburban cities within the Area in 1970s. Tokyo prefecture at the centre functioned as CBD, and showed a continuous growth of economic activities, while the leading sector changed from secondary to tertiary sector. The number of daily commuters to Tokyo prefecture has increased to two million persons. Thus in the Tokyo prefecture several variables like social inflow, employment in secondary sector and residential population reached to historical highest values in late 1960s and early 1970s, An economic-demographic model is constructed by pooling data of four prefectures for 1965–1979 to describle these rapid changes in four prefectures.

The model consists of seven blocks (population, commutation, employment, production, income and expenditure, capital stock, price) and contains 142 equations. Social movement of residential population is explained by per capita income, housing stock, endowment of social overhead capital, and land price. Daily commuters are explained by labor productivities. Private and public investments are endogenously explained in the model. Potential type variables of income and population are used to describe the interregional linkages in various equations. After final test the model could properly explain the turning point period of Tokyo, and drastic changes of Metropolitan Area. The model is then applied to the forecast up to 1990, and several simulation studies to clarify various policy effects.